over, that great Changes of Weather happen near the Change of the Moon, it follows that this is the Season when these Exhalations that ascend so plentifully at Sun-rising are condensed, and consequently is the Season when we ought to expect Rain.

IF therefore the Exhalations rise in the new Moon, it is a Sign that the Air is in a fit disposition to sustain and support them for a considerable Time, and therefore we have Reason to expect that they should continue floating till the next regular change of Weather, that is, till the old of the Moon, or rather till towards the next Change, and therefore the Observation is very cautiously and very properly worded, directing us to expect Rain in the old, and in the new, and not at the old or new, because it is observed that these Changes of Weather happen not exactly at the Change of the Moon, but a Day or two before or after, of which the Reader will meet with many Examples in Captain Dampier's History of Winds and Storms at Sea.

XII.

WINDS. Observe, that in eight Years' Time there is as much South West Wind, as North East, and consequently as many wet Years as dry.

THIS must be allowed a very extraordinary Aphorism from a Country Shepherd, but at the same Time it is very agreeable to the Observations of Dr. Hooke, Dr. Derham, Dr. Grew, and other able Naturalists, who with unwearied Pains and Diligence have calculated the Quantity of Rain falling in one Year, and compared it with what fell in another. Lord Bacon, that Honour to our Nation and the Age which produced him, informs us, that it was an old Opinion there was a total Revolution of the Weather once in forty Years, and wishes it was inquired into. I cannot tell whether this has ever been done or not, but I think there is good Reason to conclude that there is a natural Balance established of wet and dry Weather, as of Light and Darkness, Heat and Cold, and other such like Variations.

IT may not be amiss to caution the Reader against a Mistake into which the Manner of this Rule being stated may easily lead him. It is this, that South West Winds cause Rain, and North East Winds fair Weather, which however is not a Thing clear or certain by any means. This indeed is true, that South West Winds and Rain, North East Winds and fair Weather come together, generally speaking. But the Question is, which causes the other, and a more difficult Question cannot easily be stated, because there seems to be Facts on both sides. South West Winds seldom continue long without Rain, this seems to prove the affirmative, but on the other Hand, when in hard Weather, Rain begins to fall, the Wind commonly veers to the South West, this looks as if the Rain caused the Wind.

BUT to keep close to the Shepherd's Observation. There is one Thing seems strongly to confirm it, which is this, that in any given Place the Quantity of Rain one Year with another is found to be the same by Experience, according to which the following Table has been calculated, for the mean Quantity of Rain falling one Year with another in those Places that are mentioned, and on this Proportion the other seems to be founded.

XIII.

When the Wind turns to North East, and it continues two Days without Rain, and does not turn South the third Day, nor Rain the third Day, it is likely to continue North East for eight or nine Days, all fair; and then to come to the South again.

IN my Opinion this and the subsequent Remarks depend entirely upon Observations, and may serve rather to found an Hypothesis, than seem be deduced from one. That the Variations of the Wind depend on certain Causes, and may consequently be reduced to Rules, is highly probable, and such Observations as these render it in a manner certain. But to explore these Causes, and to explain them in such a manner as to account for these Phænomena in a satisfactory manner, requires not only great Sagacity but much Experience, and many Years' Observation, which, however, considering the great Benefits that would result to Mankind from establishing such a Theory, would be Time well bestowed.

WE may however easily conceive that a constant North East Wind must be accompanied with fair Weather. For whatever the causes of Winds may be, yet on this side the Equator, a strong and settled North East always buoys up the Clouds and keeps them suspended. This has been long observed by, and passes for a settled point amongst Seamen. The Reason of it however cannot be so easily assigned, at least a satisfactory Reason, for as to Suppositions, every fanciful Man can furnish them at Pleasure.

THIS, as well as the following Observations, very plainly and clearly prove, that in this Part of the World fair Weather attends one Wind, and wet another, but which is the Cause and which the Effect, or whether both are not the Effects of some other Cause, I pretend not absolutely to determine. But inasmuch as it is certainly known, that Rains attend in other Climates those Winds that are here attended with fair Weather, it seems more agreeable to suppose that rainy Weather is occasioned chiefly by West Winds, because loaded with moist Vapours from the Sea.

XIV.

If it turn out again out of the South to the North East with Rain, and continues in the North East two Days without Rain, and neither turns South nor rains the third Day, it is like to continue North East for two or three months.

The Wind will finish these Turns in three Weeks.

THIS Observation is of the same nature with the former, and is plainly deduced from long experience. Our Author seems to contradict himself in saying that these Winds finish their Turns in three Weeks, but his true Meaning certainly is, that they are \about three Weeks in turning from the South to the North East again. Some very great men have laid it down as a thing certain, that the Variations of the Wind are to be accounted for by the Alteration of the Balance of the Air, occasioned by the different Effects of Heat and Cold; but other Writers again insist very copiously on the Effects which Winds have upon the Air, and thus confound us in a Circle of Causes and Effects, whence it is plain that they do not thoroughly understand the Subject themselves, and therefore it is no Wonder that they are not able to explain it to others.

IN some Parts of the World, and especially between the Tropicks, the Winds are regular, and therefore our Philosophers seem to talk more rationally about them. But in our Northern Countries the Alterations of the Wind are so frequent, sudden, and often so little agreeable to the Season, that such general Reasonings will by no Means serve to explain them. It is however very reasonable to suppose that the same general Cause prevails here as between the Tropics, but with less Certainty, because the Power of the Sun is not so great, and the Determinations of the Winds depend on the Situation of Mountains, Rocks, and Woods, which direct the Air driving against them into certain Courses, so that it is impossible to explain, or indeed to judge of the Course of the Winds till