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The Eruption of Vesuvius in 1872
اقرأ عينة مجانية

The Eruption of Vesuvius in 1872

بقلم Palmieri Luigi

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THE
ERUPTION OF VESUVIUS
IN 1872,

BY
PROFESSOR LUIGI PALMIERI,

Of the University of Naples; Director of the Vesuvian Observatory.

WITH NOTES, AND AN
INTRODUCTORY SKETCH OF THE PRESENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE
OF TERRESTRIAL VULCANICITY,
The Cosmical Nature and Relations of Volcanoes and Earthquakes.
BY
ROBERT MALLET,

Mem. Inst. C.E., F.R.S., F.G.S., M.R.I.A., &c., &c.

WITH ILLUSTRATIONS.

LONDON:

ASHER & CO.,
13, BEDFORD STREET, COVENT GARDEN, W.C.

1873.


W. S. Johnson, Nassau Steam Press, 60, St. Martin's Lane, Charing Cross, W.C.


"The Translator should look upon himself as a Merchant in the Intellectual Exchange of the world, whose business it is to promote the interchange of the produce of the mind."

Gœthe, "Kunst und Alterthum."


INTRODUCTORY SKETCH, &c.

The publishers of this little volume, in requesting me to undertake a translation of the "Incendio Vesuviano," of Professor Palmieri, and to accompany it with some introductory remarks, have felt justified by the facts that Signor Palmieri's position as a physicist, the great advantages which his long residence in Naples as a Professor of the University, and for many years past Director of the Meteorological Observatory—established upon Vesuvius itself, prior to the expulsion of the late dynasty—have naturally caused much weight to attach to anything emanating from his pen in reference to that volcano.

Nearly forty memoirs on various branches of physics—chiefly electricity, magnetism and meteorology—produced since 1842, are to be found under Palmieri's name in the "Universal Catalogue of Scientific Papers of the Royal Society," and of these nine refer to Vesuvius, the earliest being entitled "Primi Studii Meteorologici fatti sul R. Osservatorio Vesuviano," published in 1853. He was also author, in conjunction with Professor A. Scacchi, of an elaborate report upon the Volcanic Region of Monte Vulture, and on the Earthquake (commonly called of Melfi) of 1851. These, however, by no means exhaust the stock of Palmieri's labours.

The following Memoir of Signor Palmieri on the eruption of Vesuvius in April of this year (1872), brief as it is, embraces two distinct subjects, viz., his narrative as an eye-witness of the actual events of the eruption as they occurred upon the cone and slopes of the mountain, and his observations as to pulses emanating from its interior, as indicated by his Seismograph, and as to the electric conditions of the overhanging cloud of smoke (so called) and ashes, as indicated by his bifilar electrometer, both established at the Observatory. The two last have but an indirect bearing upon Vulcanology. The narrative of the events of the eruption is characterised by exactness of observation and a sobriety of language—so widely different from the exaggerated style of sensational writing that is found in almost all such accounts—that I do the author no more than justice in thus expressing my view of its merits.

Nor should a special narration, such as this, become less important or suffer even in popular estimation by the fact that so recently my friend, Professor J. Phillips, has given to the world the best general account of Vesuvius, in its historical and some of its scientific aspects, which has yet appeared. That monograph—with its sparkling style, and scholarly digressions, as well as for its more direct merits—will, no doubt, become the manual for many a future visitor to the volcanic region of Naples; but it, like the following Memoir of Palmieri, and in common with almost every work that has appeared on the subject of Volcanoes, contains a good deal which, however interesting, and remotely related to Vulcanology, does not properly belong to the body of that branch of cosmical science, as I understand its nature and limits.

It tends but little, for example, to clear our views, or enlarge our knowledge of the vast mechanism in which the Volcano originates, and that by which its visible mass is formed, that we should ascertain the electric condition of the atmosphere above its eruptive cone, or into what crystallographic classes the mineral species found about it may be divided: it will help us but little to know Pliny's notions of how Pompeii was overwhelmed, or to re-engrave pictures, assumed to give the exact shape of the Vesuvian or other cone at different periods, or its precise altitude, which are ever varying, above the sea. Even much more time and labour may be spent upon analysing the vapours and gases of fumaroles and salfatares than the results can now justify.

Nothing, perhaps, tends more to the effective progress of any branch of observational and inductive science, than that we should endeavour to discern clearly the scope and boundary of our subject.

To do so is but to accord with Bacon's maxim, "Prudens questio dimidium scientiæ." That once shaped, the roads or methods of approach become clearer; and every foothold attained upon these direct paths enables us to look back upon such collateral or subordinate questions as at first perplexed us, and find them so illuminated that they are already probably solved, and, by solution, again prove to us that we are in the right paths.

I believe, therefore, that I shall not do disservice to the grand portion of cosmical physics to which volcanic phenomena belong, by devoting the few pages accorded to me for this Introduction to sketching what seems to me to be the present position of terrestrial Vulcanicity, and tracing the outlines and relations of the two branches of scientific investigation—Vulcanology and Seismology—by which its true nature and part in the Cosmos are chiefly to be ascertained.

The general term, Vulcanicity, properly comprehends all that we see or know of actions taking place upon and modifying the surface of our globe, which are referable not to forces of origin above the surface, and acting superficially, but to causes that have been or are in operation beneath it. It embraces all that Humboldt has somewhat vaguely called "the reactions of the interior of a planet upon its exterior."

These reactions show themselves principally and mainly in the marking out and configuration of the great continents and ocean beds, in the forcing up of mountain chains, and in the varied phenomena consequent thereon, as seen in more or less adjacent formations.

These constitute the mechanism which has moulded and fashioned the surface of our globe from the period when it first became superficially solid, and prepared it as the theatre for the action of all those superficial actions—such as those of tides, waves, rain, rivers, solar heat, frost, vitality, vegetable and animal (passing by many others less obvious)—which perpetually modify, alter or renew the surface of our world, and maintain the existing regimen of the great machine, and of its inhabitants. These last are the domain of Geology, properly so called. No geological system can be well founded, or can completely explain the working of the world's system as we now see it, that does not start from Vulcanicity as thus defined; and this is equally true, whether, as do most geologists, we include within

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the term Geology everything we can know about our world as a whole, exclusive of what Astronomy teaches as to it, dividing Geology in general into Physical Geology—the boundaries of which are very indistinct—and Stratigraphical Geology, whose limits are equally so.

It has been often said that Geology in this widest sense begins where Astronomy or Cosmogony ends its information as to our globe, but this is scarcely true.

Vulcanicity—or Geology, if we choose to make it comprehend that—must commence its survey of our world as a nebula upon which, for unknown ages, thermic, gravitant and chemical forces were operative, and to the final play of which, the form, density and volume, as well as order of deposition of the different elements in the order of their chemical combination and deposition was due, when first our globe became a liquid or partly liquid spheroid, and which have equally determined the chemical nature of the materials of the outward rind of the earth that now is, and with these some of the primary conditions that have fixed the characters, nature and interdependence of the vegetables and animals that inhabit it. Physical Astronomy and Physical Geology, through Vulcanicity, thus overlap each other; the first does not end where the second begins; and in every sure attempt to bring Geology to that pinnacle which is the proper ideal of its completed design—namely, the interpretation of our world's machine, as part of the universal Cosmos (so far as that can ever become known to our limited observation and intelligence)—we must carry with us astronomic considerations, we must keep in view events anterior to the "status consistentior" of Leibnitz, nor lose sight of the fact that the chain of causation is one endless and unbroken; that forces first set moving, we know not when or how, the dim remoteness of which imagination tries to sound in shadowy thought, like those of the grand old Eastern poem, "When the morning stars first sang together," are, however changed in form, operative still. The light and fragile butterfly, whose glorious garb irradiates the summer zephyr in which it floats, has had its power of flight—which is its power to live—determined by results of that same chain of causes that lifted from the depths the mountain on whose sunny side he floats, that has determined the seasons and the colour of the flower whose nectar he sucks, and that discharges or dissipates the storm above, that may crush the insect and the blossom in which it basked. And thus, as has been said, it was not all a myth, that in older days affirmed that in some mysterious way the actions and the lives of men were linked to the stars in their courses.

Whatever may have been the manifestations of Vulcanicity at former and far remoter epochs of our planet, and to which I shall return, in the existing state of regimen of and upon our globe it shows itself chiefly in the phenomena of Volcanoes and of Earthquakes, which are the subjects of Vulcanology and of Seismology respectively, and in principal part, also, of this Introduction.

The phenomena of hot springs, geysers, etc., which might be included under the title of Thermopægology, have certain relations to both, but more immediately to Vulcanology.

Let us now glance at the history and progress of knowledge in these two chief domains of Vulcanicity, preparatory to a sketch of its existing stage as to both, and, by the way, attempt to extract a lesson as to the methods by which such success as has attended our labours has been achieved.

It will be most convenient to treat of Seismology first in order.

Aristotle—who devotes a larger space of his Fourth Book, Περἱ Κοσμου, to Earthquakes—Seneca, Pliny, Strabo, in the so-called classic days, and thence no end of writers down to about the end of the seventeenth century—amongst whom Fromondi (1527) and Travagini (1679) are, perhaps, the most important now—have filled volumes with records of facts, or what they took to be such, of Earthquakes, as handed down to or observed by themselves, and with plenty of hypotheses as to their nature and origin, but sterile of much real knowledge.

Hooke's "Discourses of Earthquakes," read before the Royal Society about 1690, afford a curious example of how abuse of words once given by authority clings as a hindrance to progress. He had formed no distinct idea of what he meant by an Earthquake, and so confusedly mixes up all elevations or depressions of a permanent character with "subversions, conversions and transpositions of parts of the earth," however sudden or transitory, under the name of Earthquakes.

A like confusion is far from uncommon amongst geological writers, even at the present day, and examples might be quoted from very late writings of even some of the great leaders of English Geology.

From the seventeenth to the middle of the eighteenth century one finds floods of hypotheses from Flamsteed, Höttinger, Amontons, Stukeley, Beccaria, Percival, Priestly, and a crowd of others, in which electricity, then attracting so much attention, is often called upon to supply causation for a something of which no clear idea had been formed. Count Bylandt's singular work, published in 1835, though showing a curious partial insight in point of advancement, might be put back into that preceding period.

In 1760 appeared the very remarkable Paper, in the fifty-first volume of the "Philosophical Transactions," of the Rev. John Mitchell, of Cambridge, in which he views an Earthquake as a sudden lifting up, by a rapid evolution of steam or gas beneath, of a portion of the earth's crust, and the lateral transfer of this gaseous bubble beneath the earth's crust, bent to follow its shape and motion, or that of a wave of liquid rock beneath, like a carpet shaken on air. Great as are certain collateral merits of Mitchell's Paper, showing observation of various sorts much in advance of his time, this notion of an Earthquake is such as, had he applied to it even the imperfect knowledge of mechanics and physics then possessed in a definite manner, he could scarcely have failed to see its untenable nature. That the same notion, and in a far more extravagant form, should have been reproduced in 1843 by Messrs. Rogers, by whom the gigantic parallel anticlinals, flanks and valleys of the whole Appalachian chain of mountains are taken for nothing more than the indurated foldings and wrinkles of Mitchell's carpet, is one of the most salient examples of the abuse of hypothesis untested by exact science.

Neither Humboldt nor Darwin, great as were the opportunities of observation enjoyed by both, can be supposed to have formed any definite idea of what an Earthquake is; and the latter, who had observed well the effects of great sea-waves rolling in-shore after the shock, did not establish any clear relation between the two.[A]

Hitherto no one appears to have formed any clear notion as to what an Earthquake is—that is to say, any clear idea of what is the nature of the movement constituting the shock, no matter what may be the nature or origin of the movement itself. The first glimmering of such an idea, so far as my reading has enabled me to ascertain, is due to the penetrating genius of Dr. Thomas Young, who, in his "Lectures on Natural Philosophy," published in 1807, casually suggests the probability that earthquake motions are vibratory, and are analogous to those of sound.

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href="@public@vhost@g@gutenberg@html@files@33483@[email protected]#Footnote_B_2" class="fnanchor pginternal" tag="{http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml}a">[B] This was rendered somewhat more definite by Gay Lussac, who, in an able paper "On the Chemical Theories of Volcanoes," in the twenty-second volume of the "Annales de Chémie," in 1823, says: "En un mot, les tremblements de terre ne sont que la propagation d'une commotion à travers la masse de la terre, tellement indépendante des cavités souterraines qu'elle s'entendrait, d'autant plus loin que la terre serait plus homogène."

These suggestions of Young and of Gay Lussac, as may be seen, only refer to the movement in the more or less solid crust of the earth. But two, if not three, other great movements were long known to frequently accompany earthquake shocks—the recession of the sea from the shore just about the moment of shock—the terrible sounds or subterraneous growlings which sometimes preceded, sometimes accompanied, and sometimes followed the shock—and the great sea-wave which rolls in-shore more or less long after it, remained still unknown as to their nature. They had been recognised only as concomitant but unconnected phenomena—the more inexplicable, because sometimes present, sometimes absent, and wholly without any known mutual bearing or community of cause.

On the 9th February, 1846, I communicated to the Royal Irish Academy my Paper, "On the Dynamics of Earthquakes," printed in Vol. XXI., Part I., of the Transactions of that Academy, and published the same year in which it was my good fortune to have been able to colligate the observed facts, and bringing them together under the light of the known laws of production and propagation of vibratory waves in elastic, solid, liquid and gaseous bodies, and of the production and propagation of liquid waves of translation in water varying in depth, to prove that all the phenomena of earthquake shocks could be accounted for by a single impulse given at a single centre. The definition given by me in that Paper is that an earthquake is "The transit of a wave or waves of elastic compression in any direction, from vertically upwards to horizontally, in any azimuth, through the crust and surface of the earth, from any centre of impulse or from more than one, and which may be attended with sound and tidal waves dependent upon the impulse and upon circumstances of position as to sea and land."

Thus, for example, if the impulse (whatever may be its cause) be delivered somewhere beneath the bed of the sea, all four classes of earthquake waves may reach an observer on shore in succession. The elastic wave of shock passing through the earth generally reaches him first: its velocity of propagation depending upon the specific elasticity and the degree of continuity of the rocky or the incoherent formations or materials through which it passes.

Under conditions pointed out by me, this elastic wave may cause an aqueous wave, producing recession of the sea, just as it reaches the margin of sea and land.

If the impulse be attended by fractures of the earth's crust, or other sufficient causes for the impulse to be communicated to the air directly or through the intervening sea, ordinary sound-waves will reach the observer through the air, propagated at the rate of 1,140 feet per second, or thereabouts; and may also reach him before or with or soon after the shock itself, through the solid material of the earth; and lastly, if the impulse be sufficient to disturb the sea-bottom above the centre of impulse, or otherwise to generate an aqueous wave of translation, that reaches the observer last, rolling in-shore as the terrible "great sea-wave," which has ended so many of the great earthquakes, its dimensions and its rate of propagation depending upon the magnitude of the originating impulse and upon the variable depth of the water. It is not my purpose, nor would it be possible within my limits here, to give any complete account of the matter contained in that Paper, which, in the words of the President of the Academy upon a later occasion, "fixed upon an immutable basis the true theory of Earthquakes."[C] I should state, however, that in it I proved the fallacy of the notion of vorticose shocks, which had been held from the days of Aristotle, and showed that the effects (such as the twisting on their bases of the Calabrian Obelisks) which had been supposed due to such, were but resolved motions, due to the transit rectilinearly of the shock.

This removed one apparent stumbling block to the true theory.

Incidentally also it was shown that from the observed elements of the movement of the elastic wave of shock at certain points—by suitable instruments—the position and depth of the focus, or centre of impulse, might be inferred.

In the same volume ("Transactions of the Royal I. Academy," XXI.) I gave account, with a design to scale, for the first self-registering and recording seismometer ever, to my knowledge, proposed. In some respects in principle it resembles that of Professor Palmieri, of which he has made such extended use at the Vesuvian Observatory, though it differs much from the latter in detail. In June, 1847, Mr. Hopkins, of Cambridge, read his Report, "On the Geological Theories of Elevation and Earthquakes," to the British Association—requested by that body the year before—and printed in its Reports for that year.

The chief features of this document are a digest of Mr. Hopkins's previously published "Mathematical Papers" on the formations of fissures, etc., by elevations and depressions, and those on the thickness of the earth's crust, based on precession, etc., which he discusses in some relations to volcanic action.

This extends to forty-one pages, the remaining eighteen pages of the Report being devoted to "Vibratory Motions of the Earth's Crust produced by Subterranean Forces—Earthquakes."

The latter consists mainly of a résumé of the acknowledged laws, as delivered principally by Poisson, of formation and propagation of elastic waves and of liquid waves, by Webers, S. Russel and others—the original matter in this Report is small—and as respects the latter portion consists mainly in some problems for finding analytically the position or depth of the centre of disturbance when certain elements of the wave of shock are given, or have been supposed registered by seismometric instruments, such as that described by myself, and above referred to.[D] At the time my original Paper "On the Dynamics of Earthquakes" was published, there was little or no experimental knowledge as to the actual velocity of transit of waves—analogous to those of sound, but of greater amplitude—through elastic solids. The velocity as deduced from theory, the solid being assumed quite homogeneous and continuous, was very great, and might be taken for some of the harder and denser rock formations at 11,000 or 12,000 feet per second. That these enormous velocities of wave transit would be something near those of actual earthquake shock seemed probable to me, and was so accepted by Hopkins.

Thus, he says (Report, p. 88): "The velocity of the sea-wave, for any probable depth of the sea, will be so small as compared with that of the vibratory wave, that we may consider the time of the arrival of the latter at the place of

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observation as coincident with that of the departure of the sea-wave from the centre of divergence."

In my original Paper (Dynamic, &c.), I had suggested, as an important object, to ascertain by actual experiment what might be the wave's transit rate in various rocky and incoherent formations; and having proposed this in my first "Report upon the Facts of Earthquake" to the British Association, I was enabled by its liberality to commence those experiments, in which I was ably assisted by my eldest son, then quite a lad—Dr. Jno. William Mallet, now Professor of Chemistry at the University of Virginia, U.S.; and to give account of the results, in my second Report ("Report, British Association for 1851") to that body.

Those experiments were made by producing an impulse at one end of an accurately measured base line, by the explosion of gunpowder in the formation experimented upon, and noting the time the elastic wave generated required to pass over that distance, upon a nearly level surface. Special instruments were devised and employed, by which the powder was fired and the time registered, by touching a lever which completed certain galvanic contacts. The media or formations in which these experiments were conducted were, damp sand—as likely to give the minimum rate—and crystalline rock (granite), as likely to give the maximum. The results were received, not with doubt, but with much surprise, for it at once appeared that the actual velocity of transit was vastly below what theory had indicated as derivable from the density and modulus of elasticity of the material, taken as homogeneous, etc. The actual velocities in feet per second found were:

In sand 824·915 feet per second. In discontinuous and much shattered granite 1,306·425 " " In more solid granite 1,664·574 " "

This I at once attributed, and as it has since been proved correctly, to the loss of vis viva, and consequently of speed, by the discontinuity of the materials.

And some indication of the general truth of the fact was derivable from comparing the rude previous approximations to the transit rate of some great Earthquakes. In the case of that of Lisbon, estimated by Mitchell at 1,760 feet per second. It was still desirable to extend similar experiments to the harder classes of stratified and of contorted rocks. This I was enabled to carry into effect, at the great Quarries at Holyhead (whence the slate and quartz rocks have been obtained for the construction of the Asylum Harbour there), taking advantage of the impulses generated at that period by the great mines of powder exploded in these rocks.

The results have been published in the "Philosophical Transactions for 1861 and 1862 (Appendix)." They show that the mean lowest rate of wave transit in those rocks, through measured ranges of from 5,038 to 6,582 feet, was 1,089 feet per second; and the mean highest, 1,352 feet per second; and the general mean 1,320 feet per second.

By a separate train of experiments on the compressibility of solid cubes of these rocks, I obtained the mean modulus of elasticity of the material when perfectly continuous and unshattered, with this remarkable result—that in these rocks, as they exist at Holyhead, nearly seven-eighths of the full velocity of wave transmission due to the material, if solid and continuous, is lost by reason of the heterogeneity and discontinuity of the rocky masses as they are found piled together in Nature.

I also proved that the wave-transit period of the unshattered material of these rocks was greatest in a direction transverse to the bedding, and least in line parallel with that; but the effect of this in the rocky mass itself may be more than counterbalanced by the discontinuity and imperfect contact of the adjacent beds.

These results indicate, therefore, that the superficial rate of translation of the solitary sea-wave of earthquakes may, when over very deep water, equal or even exceed the transit rate (in some cases) of the elastic wave of shock itself.

These results have since received general confirmation by the careful determinations of the transit rates of actual earthquake waves, in the rocks of the Rhine Country and in Hungary, by Nöggerath and Schmidt respectively, and by those made since by myself in those of Southern Italy, to which I shall again refer. In an elastic wave propagated from a centre of impulse in an infinitely extended volume of a perfect gas, normal vibrations are alone propagated—as is the case with sound in air.

In the case of like movements propagated in elastic and perfectly homogeneous and isotropic solids, the wave possesses both normal and transversal vibrations, and is, in so far, analogous to the case of light. Mr. Hopkins, in his Report above referred to, has based certain speculations upon the assumed necessary co-existence of both orders of vibration in actual earthquake shocks in the materials of which our earthy crust is actually composed.

The existence of transversal vibration in those materials has not been yet proved experimentally, though there is sufficient ground to preclude our denying their probable existence.

That if they do exist they play but a very subordinate part in the observable phenomena of actual Earthquake is highly probable. This is the view, supported not only by observations of the effects of such shocks in Nature, but by the theoretic consideration of the effects of discontinuity of formations in planes or beds more or less transverse to the wave path (or line joining the centre of impulse with the mean centre of wave disturbance at any point of its transit). If we suppose, for illustration sake, such an elastic wave transmitted perpendicularly through a mass of glass plates, each indefinitely thin, and all in absolute contact with each other, but without adhesion or friction, more or less of the transversal vibration of the wave would be cut off and lost at each transit from plate to plate, as the elastic compression can, by the conditions, be transmitted only normally or by direct push perpendicularly from plate to plate. This must take place in Nature, and to a very great extent, and the consideration, with others, enabled me generally to apply the normal wave motion of shock alone to my investigation as to the depth of the centre of impulse of the great Neapolitan Earthquake of 1857, an account of which was published in 1862, and to be presently further referred to.

Hitherto the multitudinous facts, or supposed facts, recorded in numberless accounts of Earthquakes had remained almost wholly unclassified, and so far as they had been discussed—in a very partial manner, as incidental portions of geological treatises—with little attempt to sift the fabulous from the real, or to connect the phenomena admitted by reference to any general mechanical or physical causes. In 1850 my first "Report upon the Facts of Earthquakes," called for by the British Association in 1847, was read and published in the Reports of that body for that year. In this, for the first time, the many recorded phenomena of Earthquakes are classified, and the important division of the phenomena into primary and secondary effects of the shock was established. Several facts or phenomena, previously held as marvellous or inexplicable, were either, on sufficient

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grounds, rejected, or were, for the first time, shown susceptible of explanation. Amongst the more noticeable results were the pointing out that fissures and fractures of rock or of incoherent formations were but secondary effects, and, in the latter, were, in fact, generally of the nature of inceptive landslips. This last was not accepted, I believe, by geologists at the time; but the correctness of the views then propounded as to earth fissures—the nature of the spouting from them of water or mud—the appearances taken for smoke issuing from them, etc.—have since been fully confirmed, first, by my own observations upon the effects of the Great Neapolitan Earthquake of 1857, and more lately by those of Dr. Oldham upon the Earthquake of Cachar (India), where he was enabled to observe fissures of immense magnitude, the nature of the production of which he has well described and explained in the "Proceedings, Geological Society, London, 1872."

The relations between meteorological phenomena proper and Earthquakes have always been a subject of popular belief and superstition.

This was here carefully discussed, and with the result of disproving any connection, or, if any, but of an indirect nature. I also, to some extent, towards the end of this Report, discussed the question of the possible nature of the impulse itself which originates the shock; I showed that it must be of the nature of a blow, and ventured to offer conjecturally five possible causes of the impulse:

  1. Sudden fractures of rock, resulting from the steady and slow increase of elevatory pressure.
  2. Sudden evolution (under special conditions) of steam.
  3. Sudden condensation of steam, also under special conditions.
  4. Sudden dislocations in the rocky crust of the earth, through pressure acting in any direction.
  5. Occasionally through the recoil due to explosive effects at volcanic foci (p. 79-80).

The first and last of these I am, through subsequent light, disposed now to withdraw or greatly to modify.

The first, the supposed "snap and jar, occasioned by the sudden and violent rupture of solid rock masses," to which Mr. Scrope, in his very admirable work on Volcanoes, is disposed to refer the impulse of earthquake shocks (Scrope, 2nd edit., p. 294), I believe may be proved on acknowledged physical principles—when applied to the known elasticities and extensibilities of rocks, and keeping in view the small thicknesses fractured at the same instant—to be capable of only the most insignificant impulsive effects; and if we also take into consideration that strata, if so fractured, are necessarily not free, but surrounded by others above and below, any such impulsive effect emanating from fracture may be held as non-existent or impossible. In the statement of his views which follows, and in objecting to my second and third possible causes (p. 295-296, headed "Objections to Mallet's Theory"), Mr. Scrope appears to me to have fallen into the error of assuming that the nature of the impulse, or the cause producing it, forms any part of "my theory of earthquake movement," or in anywise affects it. I carefully guarded against this in the original Paper ("Transactions, Royal Irish Academy," Vol. XXI., p. 60, and again, p. 97), when I stated "it is quite immaterial to the truth of my theory of earthquake motion what view be adopted, or what mechanism be assigned, to account for the original impulse."

As regards the fifth conjecture suggested by me, I am now, with better knowledge and larger observation of volcanic phenomena, not prepared to admit any single explosion at volcanic vents of a magnitude sufficient to produce by its recoil an earthquake wave of any importance, or extending to any great distance in the earth's crust. The rock of 200 tons weight, said to have been projected nine miles from the crater of Cotopaxi, which I quoted from Humboldt as an example,[E] I believe to be as purely mythical as the rock (bloc rejetté) of perhaps one-sixth of that weight which, previous to the late eruption, lay in the middle of the Atria dell Cavallo, and which it was roundly affirmed had been blown out of the crater, but which in reality had at some time rolled down from near the top of the cone, after having been dislodged from some part of the upper lip of the crater walls, where, as its wonderful hardness and texture and its enamel-like surface showed, it had been roasted for years probably.

Nor do I believe in the sudden blowing away of one-half the crater and cone of Vesuvius, or of any other volcano, at one effort, however affirmed.

Nothing more than conjecture as to the nature of the impulse producing great or small Earthquakes can, I believe, as yet be produced. That there is some one master mechanism productive of most of the impulses of great shocks is highly probable, but that more causes than one may produce these impulses, and that the causes operative in small and long repeated shocks, like those of Visp-Comrie and East Haddam, differ much from those producing great Earthquakes, is almost certain.

We shall be better prepared to assign all of these when we have admitted a true theory of volcanic action, and so are better able to see the intimate relations in mechanism between seismic and volcanic actions.

It is not difficult meanwhile to assign the very probable mechanism of those comparatively petty repercussions which are experienced in close proximity to volcanic vents when in eruption, and which, though certainly seismic in their nature, and powerful enough, as upon the flanks of Etna, to crack and fissure well-built church-towers, can scarcely be termed Earthquakes.

In my First Report I stated that almost nothing was known then of the distribution of recorded Earthquakes in time or in space over our globe's surface, and I proposed the formation and discussion of a complete catalogue of all recorded Earthquakes, with this in view.

This was approved by the Council of the British Association and at once undertaken by me, with the zealous and efficient co-operation of my eldest son, Dr. J. W. Mallet. Nearly the whole of the Second British Association Report, of 1851, is occupied with the account of the experiments as to the transit rate of artificially made shocks in sand and granite, as already referred to.

The Third Report, of 1852-1854, contains the whole of this, "The Earthquake Catalogue of the British Association" (of which, through the liberality of that body, more than one hundred copies were distributed freely), in which are given, in columnar form, the following particulars, from the earliest known dates to the end of 1842:

  1. The date and time of day, as nearly as recorded.
  2. The locality or place of occurrence.
  3. The direction, duration, and number of shocks so far recorded.
  4. Phenomena connected with the sea—great sea-waves, tides, etc.
  5. Phenomena connected with the land—meteorological phenomena preceding and succeeding. Secondary phenomena—all minor or remarkable phenomena recorded.
  6. The authority for the record.

Though most materially assisted by the previous labours and partial catalogues of Von Hoff, Cotte, Hoffman, Merrian, and, above all, of Perrey, the preparation of this catalogue—which demanded visits to the chief libraries of Europe, and the collating of some thousands of authors in various languages and of all time—was a work of great and sustained labour, which, except for my dear son's help, I

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should never have found time and power to complete. Professor Perrey, formerly of the Faculté des Sciences of Dijon, now en retrait, who has devoted a long and useful life to assiduous labours in connection with Seismology, was our great ally; and his catalogues are so large and complete for most known parts of the world after 1842, that we were able to arrest our own catalogue at that date, and take M. Perrey's as their continuation up to 1850.

The whole British Association Catalogue thus embraces the long historic period of from 1606 B.C. of vulgar chronology, when the first known Earthquake is recorded, to A.D. 1850; and the base of induction which it presents as to the facts recorded extends to between 6,000 and 7,000 separate Earthquakes. My Fourth Report ("Reports, British Association, 1858,") is occupied principally with the discussion of this great catalogue, and with that of several special catalogues produced by other authors with limited areas or objects.

The discussion of M. Perrey's local catalogues with those of others, in reference to a supposed prevalent apparent horizontal direction of shock in certain regions—as to distribution, as to season, months, time of day or night, relation to state of tide—the bearings of the views of Zantedeschi and others as to the probable existence of a terrane tide—the supposed relations of the occurrence of Earthquakes upon the age of the moon, as deduced by Perrey, viz.: that 1st, Earthquakes occur most frequently at the syzygies; 2nd, that their frequency increases at the perigee and diminishes at the apogee; 3rd, that they are more frequent when the moon is on the meridian than when she is 90° away from it—and the views of several authorities as to the distribution of Earthquakes in time and in space—occupy the first 46 pages of this Report.

It then proceeds to discuss the distribution in time and in space as deduced from the full base of the great catalogue.

The results as to time are reduced to curves, and those as to space (or distribution over our globe's surface) to the great seismic map (Mercator's projection), upon which and in accordance with certain principles and conventional laws, which admit of the indication of both intensity and frequency, all recorded Earthquakes have been so laid down as to present a real indication of the distribution of seismic energy for the whole historic period and all over the world.

The original of this map, which also shows the Volcano (size, about 7 feet by 5 feet), remains for reference in the custody of the Royal Society. A reduced copy was published with the Report, and to a still more reduced scale has been reproduced in other places. It is impossible here to do more than refer to a few of the more salient points.

As regards distribution in time, durational seismic energy may be considered as probably constant during historic time, though it is probably a decaying energy viewed in reference to much longer periods. It does not appear of the nature of a distinctly periodic force.

  1. Whilst the minimum paroxysmal interval may be a year or two, the average interval is from five to ten years of comparative repose.
  2. The shorter intervals are in connection with periods of fewer Earthquakes, not always with those of least intensity, but usually so.
  3. The alternations of paroxysm and of repose appear to follow no absolute law deducible from these causes.
  4. Two marked periods of extreme paroxysm are observable in each century (for the last three centuries), one greater than the other—that of greatest number and intensity occurring about the middle of each century, and the other towards the end of each.

As respects season, there appear distinct indications of a maximum about the winter solstice, and equally so of a minimum rather before the autumnal equinox. It is not improbable that there is a remote relation between Earthquakes and the annual march of barometric pressure.

We may expect, at present, one great Earthquake about every eight months, and were we possessed of a sufficient report from all parts of our globe, we should probably find scarcely a day pass without a very sensible Earthquake occurring somewhere, whilst, as regards still smaller tremors, it might almost be said that our globe, as a whole, is scarcely ever free from them.

As respects the distribution of seismic energy in space of our earth's surface, it is that of bands of variable and of great breadth, with sensible seismic influence extending to from 5° to 15° transversely, which very generally follow:

  1. The lines of elevated tracts which mark and divide the great oceanic or terra-oceanic basins (or saucers, as I have called them, from their shallowness in relation to surface, in this discussion) of the earth's surface.
  2. And in so far as these are frequently the lines of mountain chains, and these latter those of volcanic vents, so the seismic bands are found to follow these likewise. Isolated Volcanoes are found in these bands also.
  3. While sensible seismic influence is generally limited to the average width of the band, paroxysmal efforts are occasionally propagated to great distances transversely beyond that.
  4. The sensible width of the band depends upon the energy developed at each point of the length, and upon the accidental geologic and topographic conditions along the same.
  5. Seismic energy may become sensible at any point of the earth's surface, its efforts being, however, greater and more frequent as the great lines of elevation and of volcanic activity are approached; yet not in the inverse ratio of distance, for many of the most frequently and terribly shaken regions of the earth, as the east shore of the Adriatic, Syria, Asia Minor, Northern India, etc., are at great distances from active Volcanoes.
  6. The surfaces of minimum or of no known disturbance are the central areas of great oceanic or of terra-oceanic basins or saucers, and the greater islands existing in shallow seas.

Space obliges me to pass unnoticed here many minor but not unimportant deductions. The discussions as to distribution in time and space occupy seventy-two pages of this fourth and last Report, the remainder of which (thirty-one pages) embraces the description and mathematical discussion as to seismometers, to which I may refer, as comprising the most complete account of these instruments that has, I believe, been anywhere given.

The appendix to the Report comprises the entire bibliography of Earthquakes collected during those researches, and a concluding chapter on desiderata, and inquiries as to ill-understood phenomena supposed to be connected with Earthquakes.


In 1849-50, I was honoured by the request to draw up the article "Earthquake Phenomena," which has appeared in the first and subsequent editions of the "Admiralty Manual of Scientific Inquiry." Originally the subject was intended to have formed part of the article on Geology, entrusted to Mr. Darwin, who consulted me upon the subject; and upon my representing how much Earthquakes had, within a short time, become matter for the mathematician and physicist, he, with a singleness of eye to science which it is but just to place on record, took the necessary steps with the Admiralty authorities that Earthquakes should form a separate article, and advised its being placed, as it was, in my hands. To record this will, I believe, be sufficient justification for my reference to this article, in which a good deal of information as to Seismometry is to be found.


By recurring to Mr. Hopkins's Report on Earthquake Theory, before remarked upon

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("Report of British Association, 1847"), it will be seen that the solutions of the problems which he there gives for finding the depth of focus of shock are founded upon the velocity of propagation of the wave in the interior of the mass, the apparent horizontal velocity and the horizontal direction of propagation at any proposed point being known (p. 82).

By this it appears plainly that at that time Mr. Hopkins supposed that it was the velocity of translation of the wave of shock that did the mischief, and not the velocity of the wave particle, or wave itself. And, further, that the former might be obtained by reference simply to the modulus of elasticity of the rock of any given formation, as, indeed, was my own earliest view when I produced my "Dynamics of Earthquake" in 1846. From the remarks already made as to the vast difference between the actual transit velocity in more or less discontinuous rocks—such as they occur in Nature—it will be equally obvious that Mr. Hopkins's methods, as above mentioned, are impracticable, even were there no confusion between the velocity of translation of the wave and that of the wave particle or wave itself.

This applies also to the demonstration and diagram (taken from Hopkins) given by Professor Phillips ("Vesuvius," pp. 258-259).

In December, 1857, occurred the great Neapolitan Earthquake, which desolated a large portion of that kingdom; and an opportunity then arose for practically applying to the problems of finding the directions of earthquake shock at a given point through which it has passed, and ultimately the position and depth of focus, other methods, which I had seen, from soon after the date of publication of my original Paper (1846), were easily practicable, and the details of which I had gradually matured.

Bearing in mind that, in the case of the normal vibration in any elastic solid of indefinite dimensions, the direction of motion in space of the wave particle coincides in the first semiphase of the wave, and at the instant of its maximum velocity with the right line joining the particle and the focus or centre of disturbance, it follows that, in the case of earthquakes, the normal vibration of the wave of shock is always in a vertical plane passing through the focus and any point on the earth's surface through which the shock passes (assuming for the present no disturbing causes after the impulse has been given), and that at such a point the movement of the wave particle in the first semiphase of the wave is in the same direction or sense as that of translation; and at the moment of maximum velocity the direction in space of the motion of the wave particle is that of the right line joining the point through which the wave has passed with the focus or centre of impulse.

If, therefore, we can determine the direction of motion of the wave particle in the first semiphase, and its maximum velocity, we can obtain, from any selected point, a line (that of emergence of the shock) somewhere in which, if prolonged beneath the earth, the focus must have been; and if we can obtain like results for two or more selected points, we decide the position and the depth of the focus, which must be in the intersection of the several lines of direction of the wave particle motion at each point, when prolonged downwards.

Now, as I have said, it is the vibration of the wave itself, i.e., the motion of the wave particle that does the mischief—not the transit of the wave from place to place on the surface; just as in the analogous (but not similar) case of a tidal wave of translation running up an estuary and passing a ship anchored there, it is not the transit up the channel, but the wave form itself—i.e., the motion of the wave particles—that lifts the ship, sends her a little way higher up channel, drops her to her former level, and sends her down channel again to the spot she lay in just before the arrival of the wave.

Everything, therefore, that has been permanently disturbed by an earthquake shock has been thus moved in the direction and with the maximum velocity impressed upon it by the wave particle in the first semiphase of the wave; and thus almost everything that has been so disturbed may, by the application of established dynamical principles, be made to give us more or less information as to the velocity of the wave particle (or as we, for shortness, say, the velocity of shock), the direction of its normal vibration, and the position and depth beneath the earth's surface, from which came the generating impulse. We thus arrive at these as simply and as surely as we can infer from the position taken by a billiard ball, on which certain forces are known to have acted, the forces themselves and their direction; or, from a broken beam, the pressure or the blow which fractured it.

It is obvious, then, that nearly every object disturbed, dislocated, fractured or overthrown by an earthquake shock is a sort of natural seismometer, and the best and surest of all seismometers, if we only make a judicious choice of the objects which being found after such a shock, we shall employ for our purpose. This was the principle which I proposed to the Royal Society at once to apply to the effects of the then quite recent great Neapolitan Earthquake of 1857, and which, through the liberality and aid of that body, I was enabled to employ with the result I had pretty confidently anticipated, namely, the ascertainment of the approximate depth of the focus.

Every shock-disturbed object in an earthquake-shaken country is capable of giving some information as to the shock that acted upon it; but it needs a careful choice, and some mechanical νους, to select proper and the best objects, so as to avoid the needless perplexity of disturbing forces not proper to the shock, or other complications.

When properly chosen, these natural seismometers, or evidences fitted for observation after the shock, are of two great classes, by which the conditions of the earthquake motion are discoverable:

  • 1. Fractures or dislocations (chiefly in the masonry of buildings), which afford two principal sources and sorts of information, namely:
    • a. From the observed directions of fractures or fissures, by which the wave path, and frequently the angle of emergence, may be immediately inferred.
    • b. Information from the preceding, united with known conditions as to the strength of materials to resist fracture, by which the velocity of the fracturing impulse may be calculated.
  • 2. The overthrow or the projection, or both, of bodies large or small, simple or complex. From these we are enabled to infer:
    • c. By direct observation, the direction in azimuth of the wave path.
    • d. By measurements of the horizontal and vertical distances of overthrow or of projection, to infer either the velocity of projection, or angle of emergence.

Fractures by shock present their planes always nearly in directions transverse to the wave path. Projections or overthrow take place (unless secondarily disturbed) in the line of the wave path, or in the vertical plane passing through it: but the direction of fall or overthrow may be either in the same direction as the wave transit (i.e., as the motion of the wave particle in the first semiphase), or contrary to it.

It is thus obvious that the principal phenomena presented by the effects of

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earthquake shock upon the objects usually occurring upon the surface of the inhabited parts of the earth, resolve themselves into problems of three orders, and are all amenable to mechanical treatment, viz.:
  1. Problems relating to the direction and amount of velocity producing fracture or fissures.
  2. Problems relating to the single or multiplied oscillations of bodies, considered as compound pendulums.
  3. Problems referable to the theory of projectiles.

These three may combine in several cases, and on the part of the observer must combine with measurements, angular and linear, and with geodetic operations to be conducted in the shaken country.

The methods of application in detail are described fully, as well as their actual application and results, in my work published in 1862 (2 vols.), entitled "The First Principles of Observational Seismology, as developed in the Report to the Royal Society of London of the Expedition made by Command of the Society into the Interior of the Kingdom of Naples, to investigate the Circumstances of the Great Earthquake of December, 1857," to the many illustrations of which the pecuniary grant, in aid, of £300 was most liberally made to the publishers (Messrs. Chapman and Hall) by the Society.

It is not my intention here, nor would space allow, of my going into the details of observation, nor of the deductions and conclusions I have recorded in those volumes. I have referred to their contents as marking the advent of a new method. I have ventured to call it a new organon in the investigation of Earthquakes, and, through them, of the deep interior of our earth; and will only add that the method, on this its very first trial, proved fertile and successful. The depth of focus for this shock of December, 1857, was about seven to eight geographical miles below sea level, roughly stated. It gives me great pleasure to add that my friend, Dr. Oldham, Director-General of the Geological Survey of India, has since applied these same methods to the phenomena of the great Cachar Earthquake of the 10th January, 1869, and with success. The pressure of official duties has, he informs me, as yet prevented his fully working out his results, but they appear so far to indicate, as we should expect, a depth of focus or origin considerably greater than in the European case of 1857. Some account of Dr. Oldham's results were this year communicated to the Geological Society of London through myself, they are of great interest and importance.

Such, briefly and imperfectly sketched, is the existing state of Seismology. As a branch of exact science it is, as it were, an affair of yesterday. It is with reluctance that I have been compelled, in this review, to refer to my own work so prominently. The harvest has been and still is plenteous, but in this field of intellectual work the labourers are few. This must continue to be so as long as Geology shall continue to be viewed in public estimation (in England at least) as a fashionable toy, that everyone who has been to school is supposed capable of handling; and until all who profess to be geologists shall have learnt that, to make sound progress, they must first become mathematicians, physicists and chemists.

It is to the general imperfect knowledge of these sciences amongst geologists that speculative errors show such vitality, and that Geology makes such poor progress towards becoming the interpretation of the world as a machine (Erdkunde).

It is for the same reason that Seismology and Vulcanology make little progress; the first cannot be pursued beyond its present boundaries, nor can even its present position be understood or explained by anyone unfamiliar with the laws of wave motion, of all classes of waves; and it would be easy to show, by quoting from various British or foreign text-books on Geology, how extremely imperfect is the grasp of some of the authors upon the subject of earthquake-wave motion, even such as they admit and endeavour to explain and apply: in fact, many geologists appear never to have framed to themselves any clear idea of what is a wave of any sort, liquid or elastic. The general silence as to seismic theory of French geological writers is remarkable, to whatever cause attributable. It has been said that French philosophers show themselves little disposed to acknowledge or to follow the lead of their foreign compeers in any branch of science. If this be true, or in so far as it may be so, it is unworthy of French science, which has such boundless claims upon our homage. I am disposed to attribute the fact in this case to other circumstances; and, amongst these, to the small extent to which our language is known amongst French scientific men.

Germany has shown more desire to cultivate this branch of science. Although, as yet, the distinct enunciation of its fundamental principles has but sparsely found its way into her text-books, several able monographs, such as those of Schmidt and of Höttinger, prove how completely some of her philosophers have mastered and how well applied them. The men of science of Northern Italy, amongst whom so many glorious names are to be found on the roll of discovery, have shown themselves quite alive to the importance of Seismology; and I know of no more clear, exact and popular exposition of its principles and application, and of its cosmical relations, than is to be found in a small volume by Professor Gerolamo Boccardo, published at Genoa in 1869, entitled Sismopirologia Terremoti, Vulcani e lente oscillazione del suolo, saggio di una teoria di Geographia Fisica.

My object, so far, has been to mark the progress of ascertained theoretic notions as to Seismology. I have, therefore, passed without notice many speculative monographs, and the treatment upon Earthquakes, whether speculative or historical, and however able, that constitutes a prominent feature of nearly all systematic works on Geology.

That which may be at present viewed as achieved and certainly ascertained in theoretic Seismology is the clear conception of the nature of earthquake motion; the relations to it of great sea or other water wave commotions; the relations to it of sound waves—as to which, however, more remains to be known; and the relations of all these to secondary effects, tending in various ways to modify more or less the topographic and other conditions of the land or sea bottom. And in descriptive Seismology the present distribution of the earthquake bands or regions of greatest seismic prevalence and activity are tolerably ascertained, and their connection with volcanic lines and those of elevation rendered more evident. Viewed alone, nothing can yet be said to be absolutely ascertained as to the immediately antecedent cause or causes of the impulse. The function of Earthquake, as part of the cosmical machine, has become more clear, as the distinctive boundaries between Earthquake and permanent elevation of the earth have been made evident; and it has been seen that Earthquake, however contemporaneous occasionally with permanent elevation, is not the cause, though it may be one of the consequences of the same forces which produce elevation; and thus, that an infinite number of Earthquakes, however violent, and acting through however prolonged a time, can never act as an agent of permanent elevation, unless, indeed, on that minute scale in which surface elevation may arise from secondary effects, like that of the Ullah Bund.

Much remains to be done, and much may be expected even from the continuation, if done in a systematic and organised manner, of the statistic record of Earthquakes in connection with those other branches of cosmical statistics, Climatology, Meteorology, Terrestrial Magnetism, etc., the

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observation of which is already, to a certain extent, organised over a large portion of the globe.

And now let us look back for a moment to ask, How, by what mental path of discovery, have we arrived at what we have passed in review?

The facts of Earthquakes have been before men for unknown ages "open secrets," as Nature's facts have been well called; "but eyes had they and saw not." Facts viewed through the haze of superstition, or of foregone notions of what Nature ought to do, cease to be facts. When, after the great Calabrian Earthquake of 1783, the Royal Academy of Naples sent forth its commission of its learned members to examine into the effects, they had spread around them in sad profusion all that was necessary to have enabled them to arrive at a true notion of the nature of the shock, and thence a sound explanation of the varied and great secondary effects they witnessed, and of which they have left us the records in their Report, and the engravings illustrative of it. But we look in vain for any light; the things seen, often with distortion or exaggeration, are heaped together as in the phantasmagoria of a wild and terrible dream, from which neither order nor conclusion follow.

Why was this? Why were these eminent savants no more successful in explaining what they saw than the ignorant peasants they found in the Calabrian mountains?

Because physical science itself was not sufficiently advanced, no doubt; but also because they had no notion of applying such science as they had, to the very central point itself of the main problem before them, freed from all possible adventitious conditions, and so, as it were, attacking it in the rear. How different might have been the result of their labours, had they begun by asking themselves, What is an earthquake? Can we not try to find out what it is by observing and measuring what it has done? We see the converse mode of dealing with Nature in Torricelli. "Nature abhors a vacuum," was told him, as the wisdom of his day. Possibly: but her abhorrence is limited, for I find it is measured by the pressure of a column of water of thirty-four feet in height. We need not pursue the story with Pascal, up to the top of the Puy de Dôme.

This lesson is instructive generally to all investigators, and particularly here; for Vulcanology, to which we are about now to turn, has occupied until almost to-day much the same position that Seismology did in those of the Neapolitan Commissioners.

Whole libraries have been written with respect to it dealing with quality, but measure and quantity remain to be applied to it.

To a very preponderant class in the civilised world no knowledge is of much interest or value that does not point to what is called a "practical result," one measurable into utility or coin. I do not stop to remark as to the bad or as to certain good results of this tendency of mind; but I may venture to point out to all, that the exact knowledge of the nature of earthquake motion, even during the short time that it has become known, has not been barren in results absolutely practical and utilitarian. The minute investigation of the destruction of buildings, etc., and the deductions that have been made as to the relations between the form, height, materials, methods of building, combination of timber and of masonry, and many other architectural or constructive conditions, have made it certain now that earthquake-proof houses and other edifices can be constructed with facility, and at no great increase, if any at all, of cost. I can affirm that there is no physical necessity why in frequently and violently shaken countries, such as Southern Italy or the Oriental end generally of the Mediterranean, victims should hereafter continue by thousands to be sacrificed by the fall of their ill-designed and badly built houses.

Were a "Building Act" properly framed, put in force by the Italian Government in the Basilicatas and Capitanata, etc., so that new houses or existing ones, when rebuilt, should be so in accordance with certain simple rules, a not very distant time can be foreseen when Earthquakes, passing through these rich and fertile but now frequently sorely afflicted regions, should come and go, having left but little trace of ruin or death behind. Some disasters there must always be, for we cannot make the flanks of mountains, nor the beds of torrents, etc., always secure; but the main mortality of all Earthquakes is in the houses or other inhabited buildings. Make these proof, and the wholesale slaughter is at an end.

The principles we have established have been thus practically applied in another direction. The Japanese Government, with the keen and rapid perception of the powers inherent in European science which characterises now that wonderful people, has commenced to illuminate its coasts by lighthouses constructed after the best European models. But Japan is greatly convulsed by earthquakes, and lighthouses, as being lofty buildings, are peculiarly liable to be destroyed by them.

The engineer of the Japanese Government for these lights, Mr. Thomas Stevenson, C.E. (one of the engineers to the Commissioners of Northern Lights), was instructed to have regard, in the design of those lighthouses, to their exposure to shock. I was consulted by Mr. Stevenson as to the general principles to be observed; and those edifices have been constructed so that they are presumedly proof against the most violent shocks likely to visit Japan; not, perhaps, upon the best possible plan, but upon such as is truly based upon the principles I have developed. Mr. Stevenson has published some account of their construction.

The earthquake regions of South America might with incalculable benefit apply those ideas; and, indeed, they have been, to some extent, already applied by my friend, Mr. William Lloyd, Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers, to the New Custom Houses constructed from his designs at Valparaiso.

As one of these utilitarian views, and an important one, it will occur to many to ask—Can the moment of the occurrence or the degree of intensity of earthquake shock be predicted, or is it probable that at a future day we may be able to predict them? At present, any prediction, either of the one or the other, is impossible; and those few who have professed themselves in possession of sufficient grounds for such prediction are deceivers or deceived. Nor is it likely that, for very many years to come, if ever, science shall have advanced so as to render any such prediction possible; but it is neither impossible nor improbable that the time shall arrive when, within certain, perhaps wide, limits as to space, previous time, and instant of occurrence, such forewarnings may be obtainable.

Earthquakes, like storms and tempests, and nearly all changes of weather, are not periodic phenomena, nor yet absolutely uncertain or, so to say, accidental as to recurrence.

They are quasi-periodic, that is to say, some of their conditions as to causation rest upon a really periodic basis, as, for example, the recurrence of storms upon the periodic march of the earth, and sun and moon, etc., and the recurrence of Earthquakes upon the secular cooling of our earth; but the conditions in both are so numerous and complicated with particulars, that we cannot fully analyse them—hence, cannot reduce the phenomena to law, and so cannot predict recurrence. Yet storms and tempests—which were, along with pestilences and Earthquakes, amongst the natural phenomena which Bishop Butler deemed in his own day impossible of human prediction—have already, through the persistent and systematised efforts of meteorological observers, become to a certain extent foreseeable;

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and medical science assures us that it has rendered that, though to a much less degree of probability, true of pestilences.

We may, therefore, give the utilitarian some hope, that if he will help us along—who value our accessions of knowledge primarily upon a different standard to his—in our talk of discovery, our posterity, in a century or two hence, may not improbably possess the advantage of being able, in some degree, to predict their Earthquakes. I fear the inducement will go but a small way with the utilitarian generation, whose bent tends much towards asking, "What has posterity ever done for them?"