قراءة كتاب Consanguineous Marriages in the American Population
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Consanguineous Marriages in the American Population
took only those marriages obtained from genealogies, which would be absolutely unbiassed in this respect. Out of 242 marriages between persons of the same name, 70 were between first cousins, giving the proportion:
Same-name first cousin marriages All same-name marriages |
= | _70_ 242 |
= | .285 |
as compared with Darwin's .57. So that we may be fairly safe in assuming that not more than 1/3 of all same-name marriages are first cousin marriages. Taking data from the same sources and eliminating as far as possible those genealogies in which only the male line is traced, we have it:
__Same-name first cousin marriages__ Different-name first cousin marriages |
= | _24_ 62 |
= | __1__ 2-7/12 |
= | __1__ 2.583 |
This is near the ratio which Darwin obtained from his data, and which he finally changed to 1/4. I am inclined to think that his first ratio was nearer the truth, for since we have found that the coefficient of attraction between cousins would be so much greater than between non-relatives, why should we not assume that the attraction between cousins of the same surname should exceed that between cousins of different surnames? For among a large number of cousins a person is likely to be thrown into closer contact, and to feel better acquainted with those who bear the same surname with himself. But since the theoretical ratio would be about 1/4 it would hardly be safe to put the probable ratio higher than 1/3, or in other words four first cousin marriages to every same-name first cousin marriage. Our revised formula then is:
__All same-name marriages__ All first cousin marriages |
= | _3_ 1 |
X | _1_ 4 |
= | .75 |
Instead of Mr. Darwin's .35.
Taking then the 10,198 marriages, with their 2.07 per dent of same-name marriages, and dividing by .75 we have 2.76 per cent, or 281 first cousin marriages.
In order to arrive at approximately the percentage of first cousin marriages in a nineteenth-century American community I counted the marriage licenses in Ashtabula County, Ohio, for seventy-five years, (1811-1886). Out of 13,309 marriages, 112 or .84 per cent were between persons of the same surname. Applying the same formula as before, we find 1.12 per cent of first cousin marriages, or less than half the percentage found in eighteenth-century New York. This difference may easily be accounted for by the comparative newness of the Ohio community, in which few families would be interrelated, and also to that increasing ease of communication which enables the individual to have a wider circle of acquaintance from which to choose a spouse.
Adopting a more direct method of determining the frequency of cousin marriage, I estimated in each of sixteen genealogical works, the number of marriages recorded, and found the total to be 25,200. From these sixteen families I obtained 153 cases of first cousin marriage, or .6 per cent. Allowing for the possible cases of cousin marriage in which the relationship was not given, or which I may have over-looked, the true percentage is probably not far below the 1.12 per cent obtained by the other method.
The compiler of the, as yet, unpublished Loomis genealogy writes me that he has the records of 7500 marriages in that family, of which 57 or .8 per cent are same-name marriages. This would indicate that 1.07 per cent were between first cousins.
In isolated communities, on islands, among the mountains, families still remain in the same locality for generations, and people are born, marry and die with the same environment. Their circle of acquaintance is very limited, and cousin marriage is therefore more frequent. If we exclude such places, and consider only the more progressive American communities, it is entirely possible that the proportion of first cousin marriages would fall almost if not quite to .5 per cent. So that the estimate of Dr. Dean for Iowa may not be far out of the way.
Even for England Mr. Darwin's figures are probably much too large. Applying the corrected formula his table becomes:
TABLE VI. | |||
---|---|---|---|
1872. | Number marriages registered. | Per cent of same-name marriages. | Per cent of first cousin marriages. |
London, Metropolitan Districts | 33,155 | .55 | .73 |
Urban Districts | 22,346 | .71 | .95 |
Rural Districts | 13,391 | .79 | 1.05 |
Total | 68,892 | .64 | .85[A] |
[A] Cf. Mulhall, .75 per cent, _supra_, p. 18. |
In regard to the frequency of marriage between kin more distant than first cousins figures are still more difficult to obtain. The distribution of 514 cases of consanguineous marriage from genealogies was as follows:
TABLE VII. | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First cousins | 1-1/2 cousins | Second cousins | 2-1/2 cousins | Third cousins | Distant cousins | Total | |
Same-name | 70 | 24 | 49 | 19 | 20 | 26 | 208 |
Different-name | 96 | 30 | 58 | 22 | 37 | 62 | 305 |
Total | 166 | 54 | 107 | 41 | 57 | 88 | 513 |
Obviously this cannot be taken as typical of the actual distribution of consanguineous marriages, since the more distant the degree, the more difficult it is to determine the relationship. However it is very evident that the coefficient of attraction is at its maximum between first cousins, and probably there are actually more marriages between first cousins than between those of any other recognized degree of consanguinity. But the two degrees of 1-1/2 cousins and second cousins taken together probably number more intermarriages than first cousins alone. Allowing four children to a family, three of whom marry and have families, the actual number of cousins a person would have on each degree would be: First, 16; 1-1/2, 80; Second, 96; 2-1/2, 480; Third, 576; Fourth, 3,456. The matter is usually complicated by double relationships, but it will readily be seen that the consanguineal attraction would hardly be