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قراءة كتاب War-Time Financial Problems

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War-Time Financial Problems

War-Time Financial Problems

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دار النشر: Project Gutenberg
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is an easy way for the Government to finance the war by getting the banks to manufacture money for it. Nobody feels any poorer for the process, in fact, those who have new money in their pockets or in their bank balance feel richer, but the result of thus multiplying currency without any increase in the supply of goods and services to be bought inevitably helps the rise in prices which makes the war costly, puts the burden of it on to the wrong shoulders, and likewise cheapens the value of the English pound as measured in other currencies. This is why the evils involved by this process become so relevant to the question now at issue.

If the Government is allowed to go on financing the war by increasing the currency with the very reluctant help of the bankers, the difficulties of maintaining our gold standard and keeping the exchanges in favour of London will be very greatly magnified when the war is over and our gold reserves are no longer protected by the submarines and the high cost of shipping gold that they produce. It therefore follows that all who have the true interests of the City at heart should use all the influence they can to force the Government to adopt a sounder financial policy before it is too late.

It is true that our war finance has hitherto been sounder than that of any other warring Power, but it has fallen very short if we apply the rough test of the proportion of the cost of war borne out of taxation and compare our performance with the results achieved by our ancestors in the Napoleonic and Crimean wars.

If we have done better than France, Italy, Russia and Germany in this respect, it must also be remembered that the financial prestige which these countries had to maintain was not nearly so great and well established as ours, with the possible exception of France; and France, being exposed to the ravages of a ruthless invader, was in a position which put special obstacles in the way of the canons of sound finance.

If, then, there are certain dangers that threaten our financial position when the war is over, we must remember, on the other hand, that the war has already done a great deal to maintain our financial prestige and raise it to a height at which it never stood before.

When the war began we were expected to finance the Allies, to keep the seas clear and put a small Expeditionary Force to support the left flank of the French Army, and to do these things during a contest which was expected by the consensus of expert opinion to last not more than a few months. All these things we accomplished, and we were the only Power at war which did actually accomplish all that it was expected and asked to do. More than that, we also undertook a great task which was not in our programme; we created a great army on a Continental scale, and, at the same time, continued to carry out the other tasks which had been assigned to us.

All these things we did, and that we should have done them was evidence of economic strength and adaptability which have astonished the world. To have financed the Allies and ourselves as long as we did would have been comparatively easy if our population could have been left at work to turn out the stuff and services, the provision of which are implied by financing; but for us to have been able to do it and at the same time to improvise an army which is now consistently and regularly beating the Germans is an achievement which will inevitably raise the world's opinion of our economic strength, on which financial prestige is ultimately based.

But, as it has been said, in discussing this question we have to look at it all the time from the relative point of view. How will our prestige be when the war is over, not as compared with what it was before the war, but as compared with what any other rival in any other part of the world can show? Here we have to acknowledge at once, freely and frankly, that, as compared with New York, we shall have gone backward.

America will have been enormously enriched by the war, which we shall certainly have not. America will have been opening up channels of international trade and international finance, and so New York will have been gaining at the expense of London. It is certain that when the war is over America's dependence upon London for credits against the shipments of goods to and from her shores will have been very greatly lessened, if not altogether a thing of the past.

This change would have happened any way, war or no war, but it has been greatly quickened by the war. Before the war America was already making arrangements, under her new banking system, to promote the machinery for acceptance and discount, in order that goods sent to her from foreign countries should be financed by bills drawn on American banks and houses in dollars instead of on English banks and houses in sterling.

Apart from this development, which would have happened in any case, it remains to be seen how far New York will be in a position to act as a rival of London as the world's financial centre. The internal resources and potentialities of America are so enormous, and there is such a vast amount of work to be done in developing them and bringing them to full fruition, that it does not at all follow that America will yet be inclined to take the position in international trade and finance which will one day surely be hers, when she has done all the work that is waiting to be done in her own back premises.

America has a new banking and monetary system on trial which has met the difficult problems of the war with great success. These problems, however, are not nearly as complicated and various as those which are likely to arise in time of peace. When a nation is turning out an enormous amount of goods for which the rest of the world is prepared to pay any price, her finance is a comparatively simple business. Even now, when America has assumed the duty of financing a large number of Allies impoverished by three years of war which have been enriching her, she is still simplifying the problem by restricting her advances to the payment for goods bought in America.

That New York will be greatly strengthened by the war, which has brought masses of American securities back to the country of origin and has put into the hands of American bankers and investors large blocks of European promises to pay, is as clear as noonday; but whether when the war is over New York will care to be bothered much with problems of international finance remains to be seen. In the first place, the claims of her own country upon her financial resources will be insatiable and imperative, In the second place, the business of international finance is carried out on very finely cut terms; and the Americans being accustomed to the fat rates of profit which business at home has given them may not care to devote much attention to the international market, in which the risks are big, the turnover is enormous and the profits very finely cut. It has been remarked by a shrewd observer that the Americans will never do business for a thirty-second.

In the third place, it must be remembered that the geographical position of London is more favourable than that of New York as a world centre, as the world is at present constituted. England, anchored off the coast of Europe, is clearly marked as the depôt for the entrepôt trade of the Old and New Worlds. New York is clearly marked as the centre for the trade of the Western hemisphere, and it is likely enough that New York and London, acting together as the financial chiefs of the two hemispheres, may be gradually united into what is practically one market by the growing ties of mutual interest.

With regard to the position of other possible rivals to London's position, it need only be said that they have certainly been weakened much more rapidly than has London during the course of the war. Paris,

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