great that a lad who is gifted with them is hardly more likely to remain overlooked than a bird's nest in the playground of a school. But, by whatever means noteworthiness is achieved, it is usually after a course of repeated and half-unconscious testings of intelligence, energy, and character, which build up repute brick by brick.

If we compare the number of those who achieved noteworthiness through their own exertions with the numbers of the greatly more numerous persons whose names are registered in legal, clerical, medical, official, military, and naval directories, or in those of the titled classes[A] and landed gentry, or lastly, of those of the immense commercial world, the proportion of one noteworthy person to one hundred of the generality who were equally well circumstanced as himself does not seem to be an over-estimate.

Chapter V.—Noteworthiness as a Measure of Ability.

Success is the joint result of the natural powers of mind and body, and of favourable circumstances. Those of the latter which fall into definite groups will be distinguished as “environment,” while the others, which evade classification, will be called “accidental.”

The superstitions of old times cling so tenaciously to modern thought that the words “accident” and “chance” commonly connote some mysterious agency. Nothing of the kind is implied here. The word “accident” and the like is used in these pages simply to express the effect of unknown or unnoted causes, without the slightest implication that they are unknowable. In most cases their neglect has been partly due to their individual insignificance, though their combined effect may be very powerful when a multitude work in the same direction. Moreover, a trifling pressure at the right spot suffices to release a hair-trigger and thereby to cause an explosion; similarly, with personal and social events, a trifling accident will sometimes determine a career.

Noteworthiness and success may be regarded statistically as the outcome of ability and environment and of nothing else, because the effects of chance tend to be eliminated by statistical treatment. The question then becomes, How far may noteworthiness be accepted as a statistical measure of ability?

Ability and environment are each composed of many elements that differ greatly in character. Ability may be especially strong in particular directions as in administration, art, scholarship, or science; it is, nevertheless, so adaptive that an able man has often found his way to the front under more than one great change of circumstance. The force that impels towards noteworthy deeds is an innate disposition in some men, depending less on circumstances than in others. They are like ships that carry an auxiliary steam-power, capable of moving in a dead calm and against adverse winds. Others are like the ordinary sailing ships of the present day—they are stationary in a calm, but can make some way towards their destination under almost any wind. Without a stimulus of some kind these men are idle, but almost any kind of stimulus suffices to set them in action. Others, again, are like Arab dhows, that do little more than drift before the monsoon or other wind; but then they go fast.

Environment is a more difficult topic to deal with, because conditions that are helpful to success in one pursuit may be detrimental in another. High social rank and wealth conduce to success in political life, but their distractions and claims clash with quiet investigation. Successes are of the most varied descriptions, but those registered in this book are confined to such as are reputed honourable, and are not obviously due to favour.

In attacking the problem it therefore becomes necessary to fix the attention, in the first instance, upon the members of some one large, special profession, as upon artists, leaders in commerce, investigators, scholars, warriors, and so forth, then to divide these into subclasses, until more appears to be lost through paucity of material than is gained through its increasing homogeneity.

Whatever group be selected, both ability and environment must be rated according to the requirements of that group. It then becomes possible, and it is not difficult, to roughly array individuals under each of these two heads successively, and to label every person with letters signifying his place in either class. For purposes of the following explanation, each quality will be distributed into three grades, determined not by value, but by class place—namely, the highest third, the medium third, and the lowest third. In respect to ability, these classes will be called A, B, and C. In respect to environment, the grades will refer to its helpfulness towards the particular success achieved, and the classes will be called E, F, G. It must be clearly understood that the differences between the grades do not profess to be equal, merely that A is higher than B, and B than C; similarly as to E, F, and G. The A, B, C may be quite independent of E, F, G, or they may be correlated. Both cases will be considered.

Ability and Environment being mutually helpful towards success, the successes statistically associated with AE will be reckoned higher than those associated with AF. Again, for simplicity of explanation only, it will here be assumed that Ability and Environment are equally potent in securing success. Any other reasonable relation between their influences may be substituted for the purpose of experiment, but the ultimate conclusion will be much the same.

First, suppose Ability and Environment to be entirely independent, A being as frequently associated with E as it is with F or with G; similarly as regards B and C, then the nine combinations shown in Table I. will be equally frequent. These tabular entries fall into three equal groups. The three that lie in and about the upper left-hand corner contain the highest constituents—namely, either high combined with high, or one high with one medium. They produce Successes of Grade I. The three in the middle diagonal band running between the lower left and the upper right corners are either one high and one low, or both are medium; they will produce Successes of Grade II. The three in and about the right-hand corner are either one medium with one low, or both are low; they will produce Successes of Grade III. This is still more clearly seen by sorting the results into