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قراءة كتاب The Paper Moneys of Europe: Their Moral and Economic Significance
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The Paper Moneys of Europe: Their Moral and Economic Significance
id="noteref15" class="pginternal" tag="{http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml}a">15 roubles (1909)
To show that my friend, the exchange dealer, made a decent profit out of this retail transaction, I quote some of his selling rates for the day on which he based his charges:
| Rates of Exchange | June 29, 1921 | |
| Austrian paper crowns | 2400-2600 | for £1 |
| Finnish marks | 220-240 | for £1 |
| German marks | 265-275 | for £1 |
| Polish marks | 6000 (selling rate) | for £1 |
| Greek drachmas | 62-65 | for £1 |
| Italian lire | 76-77 | for £1 |
| Roumanian lei | 230-250 | for £1 |
The last I heard from Vienna was that they had been varying from ten thousand to fifteen thousand to the paper pound!
The difference in the rates depended, of course, upon whether the customer was buying or selling the foreign money. If he was buying Austrian notes, he would get twenty-four hundred paper crowns for a pound. If he was selling them, he would receive a pound in exchange for twenty-six hundred paper crowns.
All these paper notes are called after, and profess to represent, silver coins, which were themselves before the war, tokens, and passed current at more than their intrinsic value because of their relation to gold.
Thus the pre-war parity of marks was about twenty to the gold pound; of Austrian crowns, about twenty-four; of francs, lire, etc., about twenty-five. On the day of my purchase, therefore, the exchange value of the German mark was less than one thirteenth, of the Austrian crown less than one one hundredth, and of the Polish mark, one two hundredth, of its pre-war status. But this underestimates the depreciation; for the British pound is no longer a gold sovereign, and even gold has been depreciated.17 The paper pound in June, 1921, was, I think, about the equivalent of twelve pre-war shillings in purchasing power. The gold dollar, which would only buy a little more than four shillings before the war, would buy five at the beginning of December, 1921.
Although an inconvertible paper currency has no intrinsic value, it can (in accordance with the quantity theory of money) be maintained at a fairly stable ratio to gold or commodities by an honest government if the total issue is fixed, or kept between reasonable maximum and minimum limits. The rise of prices since the war, in each country where reliable statistics are available, has been in proportion to the expansion of the paper currency, allowance being made for the scarcity of commodities. Of course a decline in purchasing power follows an expansion of circulation. The stability of the British paper pound since a limit was imposed illustrates the correctness of the quantity theory of money. Its increase in purchasing power (like that of the gold dollar) during the first half of 1921 is, of course, due to the fact that the supply of utilities had overtaken the demand.
At first sight it seems difficult to understand how any government, however bad, can deliberately issue flood upon flood of inconvertible paper money, seeing that its printing operations are ruinous to both public and private credit. To obtain the same amount of revenue, each new issue, each new dose, has to be much larger than the preceding. In the course of twelve months, for example, the exchange value of the Polish mark was divided by ten, that is, at the end of the period, ten times as much paper money had to be printed as at the beginning, to get the same revenue. Yet the Polish Government continued upon its course with the approval and support of the Polish Diet.
The following quotation is from the Warsaw correspondent of the London Economist, who wrote on July 28, 1921:
The effects of the last collapse of the exchanges are beginning to make themselves felt, and the Diet is already preparing fresh ground for new currency inflation. By its last vote the limit on the note circulation has been increased to 118 milliards, and on the advances of the Polish National Bank to the Government to 150 milliards.
The depreciation of the Polish mark in June was followed by a rise of prices, and this led immediately to a strike movement in almost all industries. In the Lodz district 40,000 workmen have gone on strike, demanding a wage increase of 120 per cent! The manufacturers declare that they cannot raise wages by more than 20 per cent; that even under present conditions the Polish textile industry is in a most difficult position on the foreign markets, especially in Roumania, the Baltic States, etc. Posnania was menaced by an agrarian strike, but a settlement has been reached. The strike of the municipal workers in Warsaw was short-lived. Everywhere, however, wages have been increased by more than 50 per cent. This naturally will entail a new wave of rising prices, the Government will be obliged to double the salaries of its officials, and the printing press will work again under a higher pressure. This is the vicious circle round which the country has been travelling for three years.
Ex uno disce omnes. The monetary policy of the Polish Government is merely a flagrant example of the recent monetary history of all the states of Europe northeast, southeast, east, of the Rhine and of the Alps. There is only one real remedy, the reëstablishment of complete peace, disarmament, the abolition of conscription, the drastic reduction of bloated bureaucracies, and a wholesale lowering of tariffs, which will allow the miserable and half-starved populations to renew the arts of peace and the exchange of their agricultural products and manufactures.
APPENDIX
THE BRUSSELS CONFERENCE18
If all countries were included, a general and proportionate reduction of the military and naval establishments to one half of their present cost would set free a fund of probably at least $3,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 annually for the purchase of food and useful commodities, for the stabilization and partial restoration of debased paper currencies, for the payment of