U.S. Department of Justice
Office of Justice Programs
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Special Report
Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U.S. Population,
1974-2001
August 2003, NCJ 197976
By Thomas P. Bonczar
BJS Statistician
Highlights
At yearend 2001 over 5.6 million U.S. adults had ever served time in State or Federal prison
* Of adults in 2001 who had ever served time in prison, nearly as many were black (2,166,000) as were white (2,203,000). An estimated 997,000 were Hispanic.
At yearend 2001, over 5.6 million U.S. residents had ever served time
in State or Federal prison
U.S. residents Percent of adult
ever incarcerated Number U.S. residents
1974 1991 2001 1974 1991 2001
Total 1,819,000 3,437,000 5,618,000 1.3% 1.8% 2.7%
Male 1,677,000 3,142,000 5,037,000 2.3 3.4 4.9
White 837,000 1,395,000 1,978,000 1.4 1.9 2.6
Black 595,000 1,181,000 1,936,000 8.7 12.0 16.6
Hispanic 94,000 392,000 911,000 2.3 4.9 7.7
Female 142,000 295,000 581,000 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
White 86,000 139,000 225,000 0.1 0.2 0.3
Black 51,000 109,000 231,000 0.6 0.9 1.7
Hispanic 8,000 30,000 86,000 0.2 0.4 0.7
White 922,000 1,533,000 2,203,000 0.8% 1.1% 1.4%
Black 646,000 1,290,000 2,166,000 4.5 6.2 8.9
Hispanic 102,000 422,000 997,000 1.3 2.7 4.3
U.S. adult resident population
1974 1991 2001
Total 145,356,000 187,982,751 210,207,901
Male 69,217,000 90,362,099 101,492,258
White 57,704,209 69,718,665 74,217,435
Black 6,593,640 9,465,170 11,287,707
Hispanic 3,923,600 8,022,134 11,452,968
Female 76,133,000 97,620,652 108,715,643
White 63,173,779 75,415,364 78,956,773
Black 7,813,782 11,222,468 13,178,900
Hispanic 4,074,628 7,655,854 11,496,534
White 120,878,496 145,134,029 153,174,207
Black 14,406,407 20,687,638 24,466,606
Hispanic 7,998,062 15,677,988 22,949,502
Note: Because of estimation and other rounding procedures, some
detail may not add to totals and may not match precisely totals
in other
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* The rate of ever having gone to prison among adult black males(16.6%) was over twice as high as among adult Hispanic males (7.7%) and over 6 times as high as among adult white males (2.6%).
* U.S. residents ages 35 to 39 in 2001 were more likely to have gone to prison (3.8%) than any other age group, up from 2.3% in 1991.
* An estimated 22% of black males ages 35 to 44 in 2001 had ever been confined in State or Federal prison, compared to 10.0% of Hispanic males and 3.5% of white males in the same age group.
If incarceration rates remain unchanged, 6.6% of U.S. residents born in 2001 will go to prison at some time during their lifetime
If incarceration rates remain unchanged, 6.6% of U.S. residents born
in 2001 will go to prison at some time during their lifetime
Percent ever going to prison during lifetime,
born in--
1974 1991 2001
Total 1.9% 5.2% 6.6%
Male 3.6 9.1 11.3
White 2.2 4.4 5.9
Black 13.4 29.4 32.2
Hispanic 4.0 16.3 17.2
Female 0.3% 1.1% 1.8%
White 0.2 0.5 0.9
Black 1.1 3.6 5.6
Hispanic 0.4 1.5 2.2
White 1.2% 2.5% 3.4%
Black 7.0 16.5 18.6
Hispanic 2.2 9.5 10.0
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* About 1 in 3 black males, 1 in 6 Hispanic males, and 1 in 17 white males are expected to go to prison during their lifetime, if current incarceration rates remain unchanged.
* For women, the chances of going to prison were 6 times greater in 2001 (1.8%) than in 1974 (0.3%); for men, the chances of going to prison were over 3 times greater in 2001 (11.3%) than in 1974 (3.6%).
At yearend 2001 there were 1,319,000 adults confined in State or Federal prison and an estimated 4,299,000 living former prisoners. A total of 5,618,000 U.S. adult residents, or about 1 in every 37 U.S. adults, had ever served time in prison. Estimates of the prevalence of imprisonment in the U.S. population, presented here for the first time, are based on a demographic model incorporating rates of mortality and first incarceration in prison.
Between 1974 and 2001, the prevalence of imprisonment increased by nearly 3.8 million. This included a 1.1 million increase in the number of adults in prison (up from 216,000) and a nearly 2.7 million increase in the number of living former prisoners (up from 1,603,000).
If rates of first incarceration remain unchanged, 6.6% of all persons born in the United States in 2001 will go to State or Federal prison during their lifetime, up from 5.2% in 1991, and 1.9% in 1974. Unlike the prevalence of ever having gone to prison, which estimates the extent of past experiences, the lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the chances of future incarceration, given unchanged rates of first incarceration and mortality.
4.3 million U.S. residents in 2001 were former prisoners
Of the estimated 5.6 million adults in the United States who had been incarcerated in State or Federal prison at some time before yearend 2001, nearly 4.3 million were no longer in prison (table 1). Former prisoners accounted for 77% of all adult residents who had ever been confined in prison.
Table 1. Prevalence of incarceration in a State or Federal prison, by
current and former prisoners, 1974-2001
Current and former prisoners ever incarcerated in a State
or Federal prison--
1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001
Number incarcerated
Total 1,819,000 2,100,000 2,667,000 3,437,000 4,652,000 5,618,000
Current 216,000 302,000 524,000 788,000 1,171,000 1,319,000
Former 1,603,000 1,798,000 2,143,000 2,649,000 3,481,000 4,299,000
Ever incarcerated rate*
Total 1,251 1,308 1,516 1,828 2,336 2,673
Current 149 188 298 419 588 628
Former 1,102 1,120 1,218 1,409 1,748 2,045
Note: Numbers of current adult prisoners from National Prisoner Statistics
data series. Former prisoner statistics based on inmate survey data.
Estimates were rounded to the nearest 1,000. See Methodology for
estimation procedures.
*The number ever incarcerated per 100,000 adult U.S. residents.
U.S. adult resident population
1974 1986 1991 1997 2001
145,356,000 175,886,630 187,982,751 199,121,734 210,207,901
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Persons ages 35 to 44 comprised the largest age group, accounting for 3 out of 10 former prisoners at yearend 2001 (1,280,000). Former prisoners were older than those currently in State or Federal prison, with 49% of former prisoners age 45 or older compared to 13% of persons confined on December 31, 2001. Current prisoners outnumbered former prisoners only among those ages 18 to 24 (254,000 compared with 155,000).
Number of adults with prison experience, 2001
Former Current
Age inmates inmates
Total 4,299,000 1,319,000
18-24 155,000 254,000
25-34 775,000 511,000
35-44 1,280,000 385,000
45-54 1,002,000 130,000
55-64 509,000 30,000
65 or older 578,000 9,000
Note: See Methodology for estimation procedures.
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More than two-thirds of former prisoners no longer under correctional supervision
At yearend 2001 former prisoners included 731,147 persons on parole, an estimated 437,000 persons on probation who had either served part of their current sentence in prison or been confined in prison on a previous sentence, and an estimated 166,000 jail inmates who had served a previous sentence in prison. An estimated 3 million former prisoners were no longer under correctional supervision as of yearend 2001.
Former State and Federal prisoners, 2001
Number
Total 4,299,000 100.0%
Under supervision 1,334,000 31.0
Parole 731,000 17.0
Probation 437,000 10.2
Jail 166,000 3.9
Not under supervision 2,965,000 69.0
Note: Estimates rounded to nearest 1,000.
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Demographic techniques used to create prevalence estimates
Estimates of the prevalence of ever having gone to prison were derived from generation life table techniques. The prevalence of ever having gone to prison includes adults currently in prison and living former prisoners.
One-day counts of the number of adults in prison are available through the National Prisoner Statistics program (NPS). Collected annually since 1926, the NPS provides a count at yearend of persons held in Federal and State prisons.
To obtain the number of persons who had ever gone to prison, separate generation life tables were prepared for persons alive between 1974 and 2001. These tables model the first incarceration and mortality experience of each birth cohort as it proceeded through life. Estimates were made of the number of persons going to prison for the first time, by year of age, and the number who had been incarcerated and survived to each later age.
Rates of first incarceration during a 12-month period were developed from prison inmate surveys conducted in 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, and 1997, a period during which admission rates increased after many years of relative stability.
Prevalence estimates for selected calendar years represent a sum of the contribution of each birth cohort to the total number of adults alive who had ever gone to prison. The number of former prisoners was obtained by subtracting the number of prisoners at yearend (NPS) from the total.
Estimates exclude admissions to local jails, due to the absence of data needed to calculate first admissions to jail. (See Methodology for estimation procedures and limitations.)
1 in 37 adult U.S. residents in 2001 had ever served time in prison
The 5.6 million adult U.S. residents who were current and former prisoners, represented an increase of 3.8 million since 1974. At yearend 2001, 2,673 persons per 100,000 adult U.S. residents had ever gone to prison, up from 1,251 per 100,000 adult residents in 1974. Overall, approximately 1 in 37 adult residents in 2001 had ever served time in a State or Federal prison.
As a percent of all adults who had ever gone to a State or Federal prison, the number of former prisoners has steadily declined (from 88% in 1974 to 77% in 2001). The decline occurred as the number of adults confined in prison at yearend grew by 1.1 million -- a 6-fold increase. Over the 27-year period the number of adult prison inmates rose from 216,000 to 1,319,000. By yearend 2001, there were 628 prison inmates per 100,000 adult residents, up from 149 in 1974.
Between 1974 and 2001 the number of former prisoners living in the United States more than doubled, from 1,603,000 to 4,299,000. Relative to the adult population, the number of former prisoners totaled 2,045 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents in 2001, up from 1,102 per 100,000 in 1974. At yearend 2001, 1 in every 49 adults in the United States was a former prisoner.
Two-thirds of the increase in number ever incarcerated due to rise in first incarceration rates
Nearly two-thirds of the 3.8 million increase in the number of adults ever incarcerated in prison between 1974 and 2001 occurred as a result of an increase in the rates of first incarceration. In 1974 the number of persons admitted to prison for the first time totaled 44 per 100,000 adult
Over 40% of the total increase in first incarceration rates occurred between 1986 and 1991. First incarceration rates increased from 73 per 100,000 in 1986 to 111 in 1991.
About a third of the 3.8 million increase in the number ever incarcerated occurred as a result of growth in the U.S. resident population. Based on estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of residents 18 and older increased from 145 million in 1974 to 210 million in 2001. Had the rates of first incarceration remained stable at 1974 levels, the number of adults who had ever gone to prison would have increased by an estimated 1.3 million.
In every year, the rates of first incarceration varied by age (figure 1). In 2001 sharply higher first incarceration rates were found for each older birth cohort up to a peak of 350 per 100,000 at age 20. These rates then dropped steadily with each older age category.
Figure 1
First incarceration rates rose sharply among persons under age 45
Number first incarcerated per 100,000 U.S. residents.*
Age at first
incarceration 1974 1986 1991 2001
12 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 1 0
14 1 0 6 0
15 6 8 27 12
16 25 29 67 58
17 66 81 139 152
18 107 143 219 254
19 142 203 295 325
20 140 217 307 350
21 143 209 306 344
22 133 188 274 329
23 132 172 285 304
24 113 164 261 285
25 92 153 254 280
26 81 142 227 274
27 79 128 224 282
28 79 116 210 262
29 68 116 189 268
30 55 112 179 244
31 45 107 164 243
32 40 93 148 217
33 38 87 123 206
34 36 82 120 196
35 38 78 125 198
36 36 74 126 195
37
38 28 64 103 153
39 23 56 92 129
40 21 50 83 123
41 18 43 75 116
42 18 38 63 122
43 16 42 56 114
44 15 41 48 98
45 13 41 46 77
46 12 34 44 65
47 12 33 45 58
48 11 35 46 53
49 10 28 44 43
50 10 26 35 42
51 8 15 27 42
52 9 16 25 41
53 7 12 27 36
54 7 16 30 28
55 8 15 33 25
56 7 14 28 21
57 6 10 25 18
58 4 9 19 17
59 4 9 19 16
60 2 7 15 15
61 2 5 10 16
62 3 5 12 19
63 3 7 12 15
64 4 7 11 11
65 3 5 5 4
66 2 2 4 2
67 2 2 3 3
68 3 5 3 4
69 2 4 5 5
70 2 3 7 5
71 2 2 7 6
72 2 2 4 4
73 1 2 3 1
74 0 0 2 0
75 0 0 4 0
76 0 0 2 3
77 0 0
78 0 0 2 3
79 0 0 5 0
80 0 0 5 0
*The number first incarcerated at each age divided by the number at
risk to first incarceration, times 100,000.
Note: 3-year averages were used to smooth age-specific rates.
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Between 1974 and 2001 the rate of first incarceration rose in nearly every age-specific category. The largest increases occurred among younger age cohorts -- those that already had high first incarceration rates. The peak incarceration rate increased by over 200 persons per 100,000 (from 143 at age 21 in 1974, to 350 at age 20 in 2001). Rates increased even among persons age 45 or older.
In 2001, 3 out of 10 adults ever incarcerated were age 35 to 44
Persons between ages 35 and 44 accounted for the largest number of current and former prisoners at yearend 2001 (table 2). Born between 1957 and 1966, these persons turned 18 in the late 1970s and early 1980s when first incarceration rates began to climb. Between 1974 and 2001, the number ever incarcerated in this age group rose from 324,000 to 1.67 million.
Among persons between ages 25 and 34, the number ever incarcerated nearly quadrupled (from 343,000 in 1974 to 1.29 million in 2001). While persons in this age group also experienced rising first incarceration rates, they were subject to these rates for a smaller portion of their lifespan than those ages 35 to 44.
As a percent of those ever incarcerated, persons ages 35 to 44 increased from 18% in 1974 to 30% by 2001; persons age 25 to 34 increased from 19% in 1974 to 23% in 2001.
Table 1. Prevalence of incarceration in a State or Federal prison, by
current and former prisoners, 1974-2001
Current and former prisoners ever incarcerated in a State
or Federal prison--
1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001
Number incarcerated
Total 1,819,000 2,100,000 2,667,000 3,437,000 4,652,000 5,618,000
Current 216,000 302,000 524,000 788,000 1,171,000 1,319,000
Former 1,603,000 1,798,000 2,143,000 2,649,000 3,481,000 4,299,000
Ever incarcerated rate*
Total 1,251 1,308 1,516 1,828 2,336 2,673
Current 149 188 298 419 588 628
Former 1,102 1,120 1,218 1,409 1,748 2,045
Note: Numbers of current adult prisoners from National Prisoner Statistics
data series. Former prisoner statistics based on inmate survey data.
Estimates were rounded to the nearest 1,000. See Methodology for
estimation procedures.
*The number ever incarcerated per 100,000 adult U.S. residents.
U.S. adult resident population
1974 1986 1991 1997 2001
145,356,000 175,886,630 187,982,751 199,121,734 210,207,901
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Prevalence rates up sharply among persons under age 50
Between 1974 and 2001, the rise in first