href="@public@vhost@g@gutenberg@html@files@36100@[email protected]#FNanchor_9_9" class="pginternal" tag="{http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml}a">[9] See Appendix "A." Italy denounced this treaty May 4th, 1915.

GERMANY'S SELECTED MOMENT.

The past history of Germany shows that she has always made her wars at her own "selected moment," when she thought her victim was isolated or unprepared. As General von Bernhardi says in his book, Germany and the Next Great War: "English attempts at a rapprochement must not blind us as to the real situation. We may at most use them to delay the necessary and inevitable war until we may fairly imagine we have some prospect of success." On July 23, 1914, when Austria launched her ultimatum to Serbia, the Chancelleries of Europe were taken by surprise. Germany and Austria chose their moment well.

(1) The British representatives were away from both Berlin and Belgrade.

(2) M. Pashitch, the Serbian Prime Minister, and the other Ministers were away electioneering.

(3) The Russian Ambassadors were absent from Vienna, Berlin and Paris, and the Russian Minister was absent from Belgrade. Indeed the Russian Ambassador at Vienna had left "for the country in consequence of reassuring explanations made to him at the (Austro-Hungarian) Ministry for Foreign Affairs."[12]

(4) The President of the French Republic and the Prime Minister were out of France at Reval, on board the French Battleship "La France."

(5) The Austro-Hungarian Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs had left the Capital and his presence at Ischl was constantly used by the Germans and Austrians as an excuse for not being able to get things done in time.

The known facts of the crisis out of which the Great War arose and the messages of our Ambassadors suggest that Germany chose this particular time:—

(1) Calculating that Russia, if she did not fight, would be humiliated, whilst Austria—Germany's ally—would be strengthened by the conquest of Serbia; and

(2) Believing that if Russia chose to fight, even if she fought with France as her ally, still it was a favourable moment.

The deepening of the Kiel Canal to permit German battleships to pass from the Baltic to the North Sea was just completed. Germany had at her disposal the larger part of a huge war tax of £50,000,000, and had added enormously to her land forces. The murder of the Archduke created a pretext which roused enthusiasm for war in Austria, and there can be little doubt that Germany was ready to use this wave of popular feeling for her own ends. Germany appears to have instilled into Austria-Hungary the belief that there was small danger in coercing Serbia.[13]

On the other hand, Germany aimed at thoroughly humiliating Russia and France, and appears to have calculated that if the worst came to the worst, she and Austria-Hungary would be in a position to beat them both. The German view of the European situation may be briefly set forth as follows:—

Russia.—Russia was passing through serious industrial troubles, which it was thought might end in revolution.

France.—France was passing through a period of political chaos, no Government being able to hold together for more than a few weeks. And on July 13 the French had appointed a Committee to inquire and report immediately on alleged deficiencies in various defensive preparations.

Belgium.—Belgium was beginning a re-organisation of her Army which would have gradually increased it to almost double its present strength.

Britain.—Germany thought the Irish and general political position in Britain made it impossible for her to show a united front in foreign affairs, and that therefore she would be unable to fight. The Germans seem to have assumed that Britain would be glad incidentally to seize the chance of making money through neutrality and would repudiate her treaty obligations to Belgium and her friendship for France, and be content to see Germany ruthlessly crushing the smaller Powers of Europe. Sir Edward Grey, on July 27, 1914, telegraphed to the British Ambassador at Petrograd:—"I have been told by the Russian Ambassador that in German and Austrian circles impression prevails that in any event we would stand aside."[14]

Our Ambassadors at Petrograd, (July 24, 1914), Rome, (July 29, 1914) and Paris (July 30, 1914), each stated that the Foreign Offices of Russia, Italy and France respectively thought that Germany was counting on our neutrality, while the German Foreign Minister, after war was actually declared, seemed totally unable to understand how we could go to war for what he called "a Scrap of Paper." The "Scrap of Paper" happened to be a treaty guaranteeing the neutrality of Belgium and signed by both Great Britain and Germany![15] The whole case is put in a nutshell in the despatch from the British Ambassador at Vienna, dated August 1, 1914, in which he says:—

"I agree ... that the German Ambassador at Vienna desired war from the first, and that his strong personal bias probably coloured his action here. The Russian Ambassador is convinced that the German Government also desired war from the first.... Nothing can alter the determination of Austro-Hungarian Government to proceed on their present course, if they have made up their mind with the approval of Germany."[16]